Election results reveal some troubling patterns for Tories

The Conservatives were always on a hiding to nothing in the local elections on Thursday. Most of the seats being contested were last fought over in 2021 when the party was in the lead - not, as now, 20 points behind. Moreover, Blackpool South was much easier for Labour to capture in the parliamentary by- election there than any of the other seats that had already fallen to the opposition in recent months.

- JOHN CURTICE

In the event the results were almost as bad for the Conservatives as they could have been - but not quite. The by-election was not just lost, but spectacularly so. Both the fall in Conservative support and the swing from Conservative to Labour were the third highest in post-war electoral history. The ignominy of being overtaken by Reform in the race for second place was only narrowly averted.

It looks as though when the final few local council results are declared, the Conservatives will have only narrowly avoided the fate of losing half the seats they were defending, and thus suffering the 500 losses that some analysts had predicted given the party's current standing in the polls.