Wet weather could see cost of beer and biscuits spiral

The price of bread, beer and biscuits may rise this year as research suggests the unusually wet weather seen over autumn and winter could hit UK harvests by almost a fifth.

- REBECCA SPEARE-COLE

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed the crop area forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board as well as government data. It found that production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could fall by 4 million tonnes compared to 2023 – a reduction of 17.5 per cent.

The decline may be more than 5 million – or 21.2 per cent – if compared to the average production of the years 2015 to 2023, the analysis also suggests. It comes as the unusually wet autumn resulted in lower levels of planting, while relentless storms and flooding over winter led to even more losses for British farmers.

Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, said there is a “real risk” that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase if the poor harvest leads to higher costs. The warning comes just as food prices are beginning to fall following skyrocketing inflation sparked by the global gas price crisis.

Wheat production could be hit particularly hard, with the ECIU estimating a fall of more than a quarter – 26.5 per cent – compared to 2023. This is because milling wheat used to make bread needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather.