DECIDE AND ACT

Russia’s harsh, blitzkrieg-style invasion of Ukraine comes from a sense of threat forged by centuries of conflict.

- MIKE RUDD

After a lifetime’s experience in the military, I believe that looking at the world through the eyes of adversaries, as well as allies, is the key to operating in conflict. I’ve had 20 years of Cold War service at both a front-line and decision-making level, which has provided ample opportunity to learn about Russia in its various guises. Its invasion of Ukraine is totally consistent with its centuries-old view of itself and its place in the world.

This is not about tanks, planes and ships. It’s about history, geography, political philosophy and culture. What follows is not a justification of Russia’s actions – just an explanation of what lies behind them.

IT DIDN’T START WITH PUTIN

Russia’s strategic culture has been built over centuries, outlived by changes of regime or even political systems.

Its massive size as the world’s largest country by area is both a strength and a vulnerability. Its land borders are long, but it also faces many neighbours who have previously been aggressive, including the Mongols in the 13th century, Napoleon in 1812, and Nazi Germany in 1941.

Its borders have been the source of many conflicts and have moved frequently. Its land mass, population and culture have changed significantly over the years. For example, the signing of the Warsaw Pact after World War II pulled seven other countries behind the Iron Curtain. It therefore places a high value on military advantage, and is prepared to use it to defend, subdue or even repress possible threats.