COVID-19

economic Impact and A Triple Blow on North East Migrants

- Tsivyo Kasom

Financial crisis appeared imminent well before Covid-19 as the global economy faced turmoil due to trade wars, credit crunch and slow growth. The real GDP growth rates of the top 10 countries, including India had already slowed in 2019 which kept the global economy in an unsecured position to absorb any shock. The Covid-19 economic shock is unique, sudden, and pandemic. As I write today, over 3 million people are infected globally, and India has recorded the highest new cases of infection per day of 1.9 thousand to 27.8 thousand confirmed cases. Comparing the infection figures of India with other countries around the world, we can expect our course of recovery to be smoother and faster.

However, our economic curve towards recovery depends on how far we can push the infection down. The longer it takes to bring down the infection, the slower the recovery would be. Flattening the pandemic curve has a tradeoff with steep economic cost.

The virus outbreak has not only disrupted manufacturing, but also has spread to the service sector. Fall in manufacturing and service PMI in India indicates contraction across the sectors. The CEO Snap Poll of Lockdown impact due to Covid-19 conducted by CII in early April 2020, indicated an anticipated revenue decline, in Q120 by more than 10% for 74% of Indian firms. Nearly half of the Indian firms anticipated job losses in their respective sectors post lockdown. The job losses in this category of anticipation have risen to 30% or more. These figures will increase as the situation worsens and if the lockdown extends.