Covid-19 Signifies Both “Danger” And “Opportunity”

Back in first week of January, many global scientists predicted that the spread of the new COVID-19 or coronavirus in China would reach a turning point by the second or third week of February. They were right. Indeed, the total number of serious and critical cases in the country has been declining since February 22, and there have been no new cases in the last few days other than international travellers arriving in China.

- Lionel Wijesiri

Unfortunately, new infections outside China have risen very fast, with potentially disastrous consequences for public health and the global economy.

Faced with this pandemic, the policymakers can draw several useful lessons from China and other countries that were among the first to be hit by COVID19. This is especially useful for countries like Sri Lanka, that have not yet experienced a major outbreak.

Predictions regarding the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic run the gamut. Some people equate the prospects for the world economy to the Spanish flu pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people - about a quarter of the world’s population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 50 million, to possibly as high as 100 million. It was one of the deadliest pandemics in human history. Fortunately, there are others who describe a shock followed by speedy recovery. Let us hope the second prediction may come right.

PRIORITY

The effect of COVID -19 is two-fold. first and foremost a public health crisis. Then comes the economic crisis. No affected country can tackle mounting economic concerns if it loses sight of the basic fact that people are getting sick and some of them are dying.

The simple fact is, if a country floods out its healthcare system, then people die of heart attacks, strokes, missed surgeries and trauma. So, the first thing we need to do is mitigate the wave that is occurring throughout the country. To be honest, the Government is active and doing whatever possible. If we can contain this devil without let him go out-of-control., we can begin slowly and easing up on the blunt economic restrictions needed to suppress the coronavirus.