In K'taka Battle, Will Caste Vs Religion Play Dominant Role?

Is the Congress deluded by its own propaganda, internal surveys and rhetorical claims of a 130-plus tally in the upcoming elections?

- Vinod Sharma

Can it decisively wrest power from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) whose challenge is weakened by anti-incumbency and the lack of a pan-Karnataka face after BS Yediyurappa's semiretirement? More importantly, will the outcome be decisive the way it was in 2013? Or will the electorate throw up a fractured verdict like in 2018?

None among the three principal contestants, including the Janata Dal (Secular), have clearcut answers to these questions. The Congress indeed is the only party to have secured a clear majority in recent decades to form governments under Kuruba leader Siddaramaiah in 2013 and the Vokkaliga icon of yesteryear, SM Krishna in 1999.

The Congress's hope of a return to power has its genesis in internal seat projections ranging from 106-121, according to a party functionary privy to in-house parleys. As an upfront claimant to the chief minister's office, Siddaramaiah's boast of a 130-plus tally in an interview to this newspaper, is based on his own assessment and that of election strategist Sunil Kanugolu. The latter's inputs were generously used by the leadership in candidate selection.

Be that as it may, it's difficult to wager on the post-2014 Congress that has mastered the art of letting the cup slip from the lip! From appearing to be a sure winner a couple of months ahead of the 2022 Punjab elections, it sank to a distant second in the Aam Aadmi Party's landslide win. The sole exception to that rule since Narendra Modi's emergence on the national scene was Himachal Pradesh where a localised campaign paid off.