China's Territorial Claim May Echo Ukraine Invasion

Experts believe Beijing’s military aggression is a face-saving exercise – but the tension poses significant costs for Taiwan

- Stuti Mishra

Can Taiwan become the next Ukraine? This is a question that defence and foreign policy experts have been pondering over for months, even before Beijing’s military exercises began last week in response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

The situation has escalated quickly in the past week. China first announced military exercises with live-fire drills when the US speaker was just about to land in Taiwan in an air force jet. During this exercise, missiles were fired over the capital Taipei for the first time, drones flew over Taiwan’s offshore islands and warships sailed across the median line of the Taiwan Strait in what the self-governed island’s military said amounted to a practice “blockade”.

Yesterday, China decided to extend these threatening military exercises, which have disrupted shipping and air traffic substantially for the island nation, and further raised concerns about potential conflict in the region even as the world deals with the global impact of Russia’s war with Ukraine in eastern Europe.

But can this conflict in Asia soon turn into a war? Experts are divided over this. Michael Chang, who managed the 1996 Taiwan missile crisis when he was deputy secretary general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, told local media the drills could be a preview of a Chinese invasion scenario.