UK Unity May Weaken Even Further After These Elections

Today's elections are of national importance because they are likely to put the integrity of the United Kingdom under further strain.

- John Rentoul

In Scotland, the Scottish National Party is not expected to do particularly well in elections for local councils. Professor Stephen Fisher of Oxford University forecasts a net loss for the SNP of 24 seats, but the party remains so dominant in Scottish politics that this is only a minor correction.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the elections could have a much greater impact on the future of the UK. Sinn Fein, which wants a united Ireland, is likely to be the largest party and hence to have the right to nominate the first minister, while the Democratic Unionist Party will be entitled to nominate the deputy first minister - the reverse of the current arrangement.

The DUP will not do as badly as some of the reporting of opinion polls suggests, because the elections use a proportional system of voting in order of preference. Although the DUP is trailing Sinn Fein badly in first preference votes, it will pick up seats through transfers from supporters of other unionist parties. But it is unlikely to win more seats than Sinn Fein, and a Sinn Fein victory will only deepen the constitutional crisis already engulfing Northern Ireland.