A LIKELY POOR JOBS FIGURE FOR JANUARY COULD PROVE TEMPORARY

Last month, U.S. employers might have shed jobs for the first time in about a year, potentially raising alarms about the economy’s trajectory.

Yet even if the January employment report coming Friday were to show a deep loss of jobs, there would be little mystery about the likely culprit: A wave of omicron infections last month that led millions of workers to stay home sick, discouraged consumers from venturing out to spend and likely froze hiring at many companies — even those that want to fill jobs.

Reported omicron infections peaked at above 800,000 a day during the second week of January — precisely the period when the government measured employment for the month. A dismal jobs report would be a stark reminder that nearly two years after it began, the pandemic retains a tight grip on the economy.

Still, most economists expect a relatively quick rebound in hiring, possibly as soon as this month. Nationally, reported omicron infections are tumbling. And many businesses are still desperate to hire: The number of job openings in late December reached nearly 11 million, just below a record set in July.

“Investors, policymakers and firm managers should essentially just write off the (January jobs) report as a one-time set of noise that will not alter the underlying strong trend in hiring and the tight labor market,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax advisory firm.