Look at the big picture

Even if shoppers cut back their spending this year, the longer-term outlook for retailers is promising

At the end of 2020, we were happy to see the end of the “pandemic year” and looked forward to getting back to normal.

We didn’t make that mistake in 2021, and few people did last year, either. It was more one of those “don’t look 2023 in the eye and don’t make any sudden movements” vibes, instead.

And, economically at least, there is good reason for it. We entered the new year with the highest annual inflation in decades. And with the highest interest rates in a decade, to go with it.

But here we are. Facing the potential for a weaker economic outlook, with some even predicting a recession. A terrible time for discretionary spending and discretionary retail shares, right?

Not so fast. Yes, the dominant narrative is that spending might fall, there might be a recession, so retail stocks are a bad bet.

That might be right. But I want to give you two reasons why that narrative isn’t as simple or obvious as it might sound. And that’s the case even if we do end up in a recession (and that’s far from guaranteed, by the way).