The shifting centre

MMP has spawned a group of strategically conservative” voters who act as a handbrake on the left and the right.

- DANYL McLAUCHLAN

After each general election, a group of political scientists conduct a survey of the views, values and voting behaviour of a large sample of voters. It's known as the New Zealand Election Survey, or NZES. Because their sample group is so large - usually about 3000 people - you can examine subsets of voters with some confidence that the data has statistical significance. So we can look at the supporters of different political parties and ask what they believe and who they are.

Under first past the post, New Zealand had swing electorates: a handful of strategic seats the major parties battled over, and these determined the outcome of the election. Under MMP, we have strategic constituencies: demographic groups that can swing from one party to another. In 2023, the so-called median voter - midway between Labour and National - was a woman with a young family who had voted for Jacinda Ardern in 2017 and 2020 but had since drifted towards National. Many of the major party policies and messages were pitched at this group.

But there's another powerful voice in New Zealand politics: New Zealand First voters. In 10 MMP elections since 1996, Winston Peters has emerged with the ability to determine the government in three - and, depending on special votes and the Port Waikato by-election result - potentially a fourth. He has been deputy prime minister twice and acting prime minister while Ardern was on maternity leave. He's been treasurer once, foreign minister twice, and reportedly would like to be treasurer again in Christopher Luxon's government.

The other enduring parties in our political system are Act and the Greens. They've done stints on the periphery of Labour and National governments: the Greens' James Shaw has been climate change minister for six years; former Act leader Rodney Hide was local government minister under John Key. But they've never had a seat at the top table; never helped run the zoo.