The future of work in the AI era

Recent discussions about the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) for employment have veered between the poles of apocalypse and utopia.

- ERIC POSNER

Under the apocalyptic scenario, AI will displace a large share of all jobs, vastly exacerbating inequality as a small capital-owning class acquires productive surpluses previously shared with human labourers.

The utopian scenario, curiously, is the same, except that the very rich will be forced to share their winnings with everyone else through a universal basic income. Everyone will enjoy plenty and freedom, finally achieving Marx's vision of communism. The common assumption in both scenarios is that AI will vastly increase productivity, forcing even highly paid doctors, software programmers, and airline pilots to go on the dole alongside truck drivers and cashiers.

The dystopic and utopian outcomes both reduce AI to a political problem: Whether the left-behind will be able to compel the AI tycoons to share their wealth. There is reason for optimism.

First, the gains from AI under this scenario are so extravagant that the superrich might not mind giving up a few marginal dollars, whether to appease their consciences or to buy social peace.

Second, the growing mass of the left-behind will include highly educated, politically engaged people who will join the traditionally left-behind in agitating for redistribution.