Rupee to outperform emerging market peers in periods of dollar strength

Emerging market (EM) currencies with larger trade surpluses with the US could be more at risk once Donald Trump assumes office.

- Flavio Figueiredo

In case of any geopolitical risk and potential trade tension, India would be relatively better placed within the EM basket.

Flavio Figueiredo, global head of foreign exchange at Citi, tells Sachin Kumar in an interview. Excerpts:

Indian rupee has recently seen periods of depreciation. Do you foresee any further depreciation?

While the rupee might move in line with the global US dollar trend, the overall India macro picture suggests a stable outlook for the rupee. Recent trends clearly suggest that the currency is an outperformer in the structural strong US dollar move. The government and the RBI have worked together to ensure a regime with overall macro stability, and this is also reflected in a stable outlook for the rupee.

With the US Fed cutting interest rates, what can be the effects on the rupee and other EM currencies in the short-to-medium-term?