Harsh summer likely this year, La Nina may develop by Sept: Experts

India is likely to experience a short-lived spring followed by a harsh summer this year, meteorologists said, predicting that the El Nino conditions will gradually transition to neutral conditions by June, making way for the onset of La Nina by September.

- Jayashree Nandi

A transition to ENSO-neutral is anticipated by April-June (73% chance), the India Meteorological Department said on January 31. After a brief period of ENSOneutral conditions, most models indicate a transition to La Nina around July-September 2024, it said.

While oceanic and atmospheric conditions continue to be consistent with the ongoing El Nino event, the atmospheric indicators are weakening at a faster pace than estimated, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Saturday.

"The probabilistic ENSO forecast depicts a somewhat abnormal pattern. The forecast, with strong El Nino at the beginning of the year, collapses by midmonth (May/Jun) and abruptly rises indicating La Nina build-up by the end of the year. A similar pattern was observed in the year 2016, after the cessation of the strong El Nino event of 2015," Skymet said.

But, before El Nino conditions start becoming neutral, its impact on the Indian spring and summer is expected to be very harsh. On the upside, the monsoon is expected to be normal, and even better than last year.

"We can expect summer to be much harsher this year. Heat waves will be more frequent and intense. ENSO neutral conditions are expected only in June.