{WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR CONGRESS} - Polls put caste census demand, INDIA to test

Hours before Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced the dates for the next round of state elections, the Congress' top leadership had gathered in Delhi to firm up their election strategy. The Congress Working Committee (CWC) had only one big agenda, with chief ministers Ashok Gehlot, Siddaramaiah, Bhupesh Baghel and Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu joining the deliberations of the highest decision-making body to get everyone on board to push for the caste census, something the party considers key to its Lok Sabha campaign.

-  Sunetra Choudhury

"The atmosphere is positive," said former president and CWC member Rahul Gandhi, remarking on the party's prospects. But while Gandhi publicly declared that the Congress would retain power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, while defeating incumbents in Madhya Pradesh and Telangana, privately, the party's strategists were much more circumspect. The results on December 3 will have multiple implications - not just for the party but for the INDIA bloc.

Firstly, the assembly elections may be the first indicator of whether the Congress's gambit of taking up the issue of the caste census, something it believes will get it an edge among other backward classes (OBCs) will work for them or not. In the state of Telangana, where the Congress is hoping to give the KCR government a run for its money, the latest NFHS figures show OBCs account for 48% of the population. With Dalit and tribals, this proportion swells to 75% making it, the party's election strategists said, an ideal testing ground to see if the issue gains traction. To be sure, unlike the three Hindi belt states going to the polls, Telangana is not a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress but a three-cornered one, with Congress being the main challenger to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi. Chhattisgarh has 45% OBC voters, while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have 40% and 38% OBC voters, respectively.