BJP has plenty at stake in Karnataka elections

A victory could set its momentum for other state polls and expansion in the south, which remains a challenge. But it needs anti-incumbency to get trumped by opposition disunity

On Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Karnataka for the ninth time this year, holding a grand roadshow in Bengaluru as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fights anti-incumbency. That Modi is staking so much of his political capital is not a surprise. It’s a tough election battle the BJP faces in the state that could also influence other state polls lined up this year as we head for general elections next. No chief minister has been able to retain power in Karnataka since Ramakrishna Hegde in 1985. So, the odds might be stacked against the BJP. It did overcome similar odds in Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath won a second consecutive term, a first for any party since 1985. But southern politics differs, broadly. It privileges a local caste calculus over the party’s saffron appeal, and its strained relations with B.S. Yediyurappa may have weakened its Lingayat support. A stir of the Hindu right over Muslim students wearing headscarves or burkha in class and the party’s move to revoke a quota for this religious minority could be part of a larger attempt at majority consolidation.