India's growth must not be taken as inevitable

S&P Global Market Intelligence has published an impressive forecast for our economy in 2030, but policymakers must take care not to squander advantages of labour and capital

As anxieties over growth grow globally amid geopolitical and economic threats, the trajectory of India’s economy appears relatively secure. According to new projections by S&P Global Market Intelligence, we will jump from our fifth spot to become the world’s third biggest by 2030, moving past Germany and Japan, with only China and the US ahead of us. At $7.3 trillion, our nominal GDP in 2030 would be more than double the $3.5 trillion figure for 2022. To a significant extent, S&P’s optimism stems from our young demographic profile and growing incomes, which make the country a vast market for businesses to serve. With about two-thirds of our population below the age of 35, we have a potentially vast workforce that an ageing China will soon be unable to match. Of course, the country will need to create jobs at scale, on which we have been falling short, to make the most of our youth bulge. And that’s just the labour part. We face challenges of capital too.