On top of the world: India most populous

India’s population won’t peak until 2065, a UN report has stated

- Manjul Paul & Nandita Venkatesan

India will officially surpass China as the world’s most populous nation on 1 July, with a population of 1.428 billion compared with China’s 1.425 billion, a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report released on Wednesday said. But assuming constant population growth in the year to 1 July, India’s population would have crossed China’s around mid-April. That’s because India’s population grew 0.7% in 2022, while China’s peaked—and shrank-- that year. India’s population won’t peak until 2065, according to the UN projections, which exclude China’s special administrative regions of Macau and Hong Kong.

India’s emergence as the world’s most populous nation gives it a demographic advantage that could drive economic growth for years to come. With over 254 million youth and a median age of 28.4, India boasts a large pool of workers, consumers, and innovators that can contribute significantly to economic expansion, experts said. However, this advantage requires the creation of jobs, which remains the country’s most pressing challenge.

“The country will not just enjoy an abundant supply of labour from this working-age cohort, but the rising domestic consumption should help the nation tide over any external shocks, a fact well demonstrated during the covid-19 pandemic," said Andrea Wojnar, representative of the United Nations Population Fund India. “As the country with the largest youth cohort, its 254 million youth (15-24 years) can be a source of innovation, new thinking and lasting solutions."