Retail inflation at 18-mth low may put rate hikes on pause

India’s retail inflation slowed to an 18-month low in April, remaining comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month, driven by a decline in food prices.

- Ravi Dutta Mishra & Saurav Anand

Retail inflation eased to 4.7% in April from 5.66% in the preceding month, data released by the statistics ministry on Friday showed. This marks the lowest reading since October 2021, when it stood at 4.48%.

With inflation within the central bank’s comfort zone, economists expect the central bank to keep policy rates unchanged in the next monetary policy meeting in June.

Last month, RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) paused the rate-hike cycle by keeping the key policy rate unchanged at 6.5%. RBI increased rates six times in a row to tame inflation before it decided to pause last month.

Retail inflation accelerated to a multi-year high of 7.79% in April last year, the highest in the previous financial year due to crop damage amid heat waves in the country.

In April of last year, retail inflation soared to a multi-year high of 7.79% due to crop damage from intense heatwaves across the country.