Will the Guardrails of US Democracy Hold?

America's democratic institutions withstood, if only barely, Donald Trump's first presidency, but will they do so again?

During the 2024 election campaign, Trump promised mass deportations and detainment camps, reprisals against his political foes, a crackdown on "the enemy within," and a dramatic reduction of civil-service protections for federal workers. To see such policies through, he says he will be a "dictator" at least on the first day, and he continues to express admiration for authoritarian leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

So, the stark question facing the United States is whether there will be adequate mechanisms that can prevent Trump's worst impulses from becoming government policy. Will the checks and balances that have protected American democracy since 1787 be enough?

With a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump may face minimal opposition to his extreme policies. The likelihood of legislative checks on his power is low, and Senate Republicans may eliminate the filibuster, enabling the full enactment of his agenda.

Unlike his first term, Trump is likely to surround himself with loyalists who will enable, rather than challenge, his actions.

While we have no way of knowing yet, focusing on this question from the outset is imperative. Will a Republican-controlled Congress provide any checks at all? Trump certainly doesn't have to worry about impeachment, which happened twice with a Democratic-controlled House during his first presidency. Instead, this Congress will likely see Trump's decisive victory as a mandate. It is hard to imagine Republican members opposing his desire to launch aggressive deportations, gut environmental protections, or weaken civil-service protections.