Trump effect on SA

Former US leader set to make changes should he win.

- Ina Opperman

It is a known fact that whatever happens in the US affects South Africa and, therefore, it is valid to ask how a Donald Trump presidency will affect the country's economy.

With so many headwinds from around the world, the South African economy is vulnerable to risk.

Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, said the main effects of a Trump presidency were anticipated to manifest in South Africa's currency.

"Our scenario modelling shows that depending on the specific outcome, the exchange rate is likely to weaken from the end of 2025 with the peak impact on inflation likely to be felt in 2026."

However, he said real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was not expected to be affected in a significant way.

Oxford Economics Africa's latest Global Risk Survey shows that businesses are increasingly focused on the potential fallout from the forthcoming US presidential election.

Van der Linde said emerging market risk sentiment had soured somewhat recently as markets assessed the impact of a potential Trump presidency.