Analysis Global growth outlook seems rosy but there are dangers

All things considered, the International Monetary Fund should be feeling relatively upbeat as it hosts its annual meeting in Washington DC this week. Certainly its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report shows the global economy stuck in a relatively low-growth pattern.

- Larry Elliott

But given how things stood two years ago, when inflation was at its highest for four decades and Russia had just invaded Ukraine, it could have been a lot worse.

As the IMF's economic counsellor, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, rightly pointed out, the fight against high inflation is all but over and the battle has been won without triggering the deep recession some feared when energy prices were soaring in 2022.

While that's clearly good news, the IMF is aware there are more downside than upside risks to its forecasts that global growth will be 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. Three main threats are identified.