Labour aides insist they're as cautious as ever- but Starmer's smile is telling a different story

Senior Labour figures are privately only just starting really to believe that Keir Starmer will walk into No 10 in three weeks' time.

- Rowena Mason

Shadow cabinet ministers, having been nervous that the polls would narrow, are beginning visibly to relax by a millimetre or two. Starmer's language in public is sounding more confident about the prospect of government.

And behind closed doors, Labour politicians are talking about what they will do in government as if victory is all but certain.

Aides insist otherwise - claiming that they are as cautious and refusing to take the result for granted as ever. "We are trying to just concentrate on our own campaign and taking one day at a time. We are ignoring what the Tories are up to. We are just trying not to make any mistakes," one senior aide said this week.

They are also attempting not to show too much glee at the Conservatives' misfortune, from Rishi Sunak's D-day blunder to his aide's £100 "flutter" on the date of the general election just before it was called.

But at the halfway point in the campaign, there is a growing belief across the parties that, in the words of Nigel Farage: "It is over, Labour has won."

Despite this, the election is still full of drama and tension with three weeks to go - with the campaign electrified by Farage's late return as Reform leader.