Having seriously underestimated Trump's support in the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling agencies trumpeted a recalibrated methodology for 2024 that was meant to more realistically reflect his standing while restoring their own credibility.
Instead, pollsters are now being called on to explain a broad range of surveys that had shown two candidates essentially deadlocked both nationally and in battleground states in a race that was deemed too close to call.
Compounding the embarrassment, many experts in the run-up to polling day predicted a narrow electoral college victory for Kamala Harris, who was foreseen by some as just about achieving a win in a majority of the seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
In fact, Trump had won five of those states at the time of publication and was leading in Nevada and Arizona, which had yet to be called.
Most notable was a poll published last weekend by the Des Moines Register that showed Harris with a three point lead over Trump in the Republican stronghold state of lowa - supposedly fuelled by widespread outrage among female voters over the restriction of abortion rights.
The poll, carried out by Ann Selzer - an Iowa pollster renowned among her peers for reliability - fed Democratic hopes of a groundswell of support among female voters that could potentially carry over to neighbouring Michigan and Wisconsin.
Selzer continued to vouch for its findings even as Trump's campaign dismissed it as a "fake poll" and "a clear outlier".
"I've been the outlier queen so many times," Selzer, whose polling correctly foretold Barack Obama's triumph in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, told the New York Times. "I'm not jumpy." Actual events proved the poll to be a dud. Iowa was called for Trump early and with nearly all the votes counted yesterday, he led by an emphatic 55.9% to 42.7%.
هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة November 07, 2024 من The Guardian.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.
بالفعل مشترك ? تسجيل الدخول
هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة November 07, 2024 من The Guardian.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.
بالفعل مشترك? تسجيل الدخول
Money hacks How to save on winter sports holidays
When it comes to skiing and snowboarding, going to Europe will always be cheaper than flying to somewhere such as the US or Canada - but costs vary massively on the continent.
Scam refund claims
Some victims of bank transfer scams will not get a penny back despite beefed-up rules designed to better protect consumers from fraudsters because several big banks have introduced an excess on refund claims.
Packaged accounts Are the perks worth the money?
For a monthly fee, banks offer everyday banking with all kinds of enticing extras. Laura Whateley examines how the 'freebies' stack up
Spain floods force firms to look south for oranges
Some British retailers and wholesalers have been forced to switch to sourcing oranges from South Africa and South America earlier than usual after last month's floods in eastern Spain left farmers struggling to harvest and ship their crops.
Northvolt boss resigns after EV battery firm files for bankruptcy
The chief executive of Northvolt has resigned after the Swedish battery startup filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.
Electric dream sours Carmakers fight strict EV rules as fines loom
When Ford announced this week that it was cutting 800 jobs in the UK, the US carmaker had stern words for the government.
Irish tycoon bids to buy out Yorkshire Post owner
National World, the owner of the Scotsman and Yorkshire Post - and underbidder in the auction for the Telegraph - has received a buyout proposal from largest shareholder.
Bitcoin rises after US SEC chair says he will step down
Cryptocurrencies rose sharply immediately after one of the industry's biggest critics, Gary Gensler, said he would stand down as the head of the US financial regulator when president-elect Donald Trump was inaugurated in January.
Feeling the strain Rising bills and Trump policies to add to pressure on households
Labour swept to power in the wake of a punishing cost of living crisis that hit households hard, with the price of food and energy rocketing, alongside the impact on mortgage rates of Liz Truss's disastrous mini-budget.
Budget blamed for end to 12 months of expansion as optimism slumps
Labour's first budget in 14 years has been given the \"thumbs down\" by private sector businesses, with Rachel Reeves's measures blamed for the end to a 12-month run of expansion and a fall in retail sales.
