A foreign policy legacy that paints Biden in a bad light

Four years may not be so very long in the great sweep of history, but it is still hard to remember which hopes and fears gripped the world especially in Europe as the United States prepared to vote for its president last time around.

- MARY DEJEVSKY

The immediate fear was of another four years of unpredictable America-Firster Donald Trump, which could, it was thought, result in the United States abandoning (or at least, scaling back) its defence shield for Europe – while perhaps trying again for a rapprochement with Russia.

The hope was that a victory for Joe Biden would return not only an experienced foreign policy hand to the White House, but an Atlanticist of the old school who would recommit the US to the security of Europe and restore a sense of US-led order.

Well, Europe got what it wanted. Joe Biden became president, deep sighs of relief could be heard from London to Tallinn and there was cheerful talk of the professionals being back in charge. The world seemed set for four years in which anxiety about a new age of US isolationism, trade wars and risk-taking could be laid to rest. And – as seen from London – the UK-US special relationship would pick up where it had left off.

As the US enters the last lap of this year’s election, those 2020 hopes invite the classic contrast between “how it started” and “how it’s going”.

What then appeared assets from the European perspective – a safe pair of hands and cast-iron support for Nato – have turned out to be less stabilising than expected. It could even be argued that Biden’s set views and traditional Atlanticist outlook made his administration less nimble and inventive in the foreign policy arena than it needed to be.

His difficulties arguably began with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in his first summer in the White House. US and UK intelligence underestimated the speed of the Taliban advance. While Germany mobilised its contacts in central Asia to facilitate evacuations, the US and the UK were left replaying the humiliating flight from Saigon – but on a much bigger scale. Allies and hardware were abandoned; the US lost 13 marines in a terrorist attack at Kabul airport. This was failure writ large.