And then there were three: the race to succeed Sunak

As Tom Tugendhat is knocked out and the Conservative leadership election goes into its final stages, the prospects of the frontrunners have been transformed.

- SEAN O'GRADY

After Rishi Sunak lost the election and announced his intention to stand down (eventually), the long campaign has placed all the candidates under intense scrutiny, and, so it seems, badly eroded the apparent early runaway lead enjoyed by Kemi Badenoch. Originally favourite, she may not even make it to the final two names in the members’ ballot, given that most of the Tugendhat vote will transfer to James Cleverly.

Cleverly is now the man to beat – he had an exceptionally good conference and is now surging to be the frontrunner and bookies’ favourite – but Robert Jenrick, a relatively recent convert to the hard-right tendency, is still in with a chance. On the basis of past experience in such leadership contests, there must be some suspicion that Cleverly’s campaign managers will “lend” votes to whoever they judge easier to beat in the last phase – probably meaning that Badenoch will be edged out and Jenrick will make it to the end.

What went wrong for Tugendhat?

Well, at least he saw off rivals Priti Patel, a well-established figure with cabinet experience, and Mel Stride, the “continuity Sunak-Hunt” candidate. He never had much of a realistic chance of winning and, like so many contenders taking a chance in such contests, may be more interested in securing a good job in the shadow cabinet and putting a marker down for “next time”, whenever that may be. (He also ran with similar expectations in 2022.)