Here's everything to watch out for once the polls close

John Rentoul on the seats worth staying up for, potential Portillo moments’ and when’s best to take a power nap

- John Rentoul

Election night starts the moment voting ends, with the exit poll at 10pm. At the last general election, in December 2019, the exit poll overestimated the Conservatives’ win by three seats. It underestimated them by four seats in 2017, and by 15 seats in 2015. In 2005 and in 2010, the exit poll got the number of the leading party’s seats exactly right, first Labour and then the Conservatives.

The size of Labour’s predicted majority will be compared instantly with the historical benchmarks: Tony Blair, 179 (1997); Stanley Baldwin, 209 (1924); David Lloyd George, 239 (1918); Stanley Baldwin, 243 (1935); Ramsay MacDonald, 493 (1931).

Then, there is a wait of about an hour and a half for the first declaration. At this point, the sensible thing to do would be to take a power nap – but everyone will discuss the exit poll on social media instead.

The first seat to declare will this time be a race between the new Northumberland constituency of Blyth and Ashington, and Houghton and Sunderland South in Tyne and Wear. Blyth is aiming to declare around 11.30pm. It produced a significant early Conservative win in 2019, but the constituency has since been redrawn, and the new seat would have been Labour last time, so it won’t count as a Labour gain if Ian Lavery, previously the MP for Wansbeck, wins it.

Sunderland South had a long run as the first seat to declare, from 1992 to 2015, but was beaten by Newcastle upon Tyne Central in 2017 and 2019. It will hope to have declared within minutes of Blyth; for its part, Newcastle upon Tyne Central now has “and West” added to it, and isn’t expected to declare until 1.15am.