Mapping out the threat of tactical voting for the Tories

More than a hundred seats across the UK could be ripe for tactical voting at the general election, according to a new analysis by The Independent.

- ALICJA HAGOPIAN

Based on a major poll from YouGov, published last Monday, almost half of the Conservatives' projected wins come with a margin of less than five points. The Tories themselves may have an eye on 50 seats Labour and the Liberal Democrats are projected to win, if they can persuade Reform UK voters to back them.

YouGov's MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll suggested Labour were on course to win 422 seats on 4 July - a majority of 194. The Tories would win just 140, followed by the Lib Dems (48), the SNP (17), Plaid Cymru (2) and the Green Party (2).

"Tactical voting" is a term used when a voter makes a choice on the ballot based on who is more likely to defeat a candidate to whom they object, rather than choosing the one they actively support. Close counts would make tactical voting a bigger factor.

While some tactical voting websites have used the 2019 general election results to identify constituencies with the tightest margin, The Independent has looked at YouGov's projections, which combine polling with constituency-level characteristics such as demographics, past vote choice, and current candidates.