Why is Badenoch's poll lead distrusted by the bookies?
The Independent|October 02, 2024
People who bet on the Conservative leadership election do not believe the opinion polls. All but one of the surveys of Tory members that have asked them to choose between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have put Badenoch ahead.
JOHN RENTOUL
Why is Badenoch's poll lead distrusted by the bookies?

The latest, from YouGov, carried out in the days just before the Tory conference opened in Birmingham, has her winning by the "cursed ratio" - the 52-48 per cent split that decided the EU referendum. This is a narrower lead than the 59-41 per cent advantage she enjoyed in the previous YouGov poll in August (I am adjusting the figures to exclude don't knows). She was also ahead, by 60-40 per cent, in the Conservative Home survey at the start of September. And in a Techne poll of party members in July (59-41 per cent again).

The only poll of party members that put Jenrick ahead, by 51-49 per cent, was one by JL Partners in August. Yet punters in the betting markets have had Jenrick as the favourite for several weeks.

What is going on?

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة October 02, 2024 من The Independent.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة October 02, 2024 من The Independent.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

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