Analysts expect inflation to pick up pace in October

Economists are anticipating a faster increase in prices of essential goods and services for October amid fading base effects, unfavorable weather conditions and fuel price hikes.

- By KEISHA TA-ASAN

Patrick Ella, an economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said inflation may have picked up to 2.3 percent in October from 1.9 percent in September.

However, this would still be lower than the 4.9 percent inflation print in October 2023.

He also said there is no possibility of inflation exceeding the two to four percent target of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in October. It would also hit the BSP's two to 2.8 percent month-ahead forecast.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the October inflation data this Nov. 5.

"As for monetary policy, I think it's on auto-pilot and I see very little factors to interrupt a 25-basis-point cut on Dec. 19," Ella added.

The BSP's Monetary Board delivered a 25-basis-point cut last Oct. 16 as the within-target inflation outlook and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to support the central bank's shift toward a less restrictive monetary policy.

The central bank has lowered borrowing costs by a total of 50 basis points so far or since it began its easing cycle in August. Prior to the cuts, the BSP kept its policy rate steady for six straight meetings since November 2023. From May 2022 to October 2023, it hiked rates