A fragile peace~II

Conflicts in Jammu & Kashmir, as in Manipur, are multi-layered and multi-dimensional. Sustainable peace may return to the Valley, and to J&K, only through the pursuit of inclusive politics, restoration of democratic governance and implementation of policies directed to meet the common man's needs and aspirations. If, on the other hand, the government's policy is designed to gain electoral dividends only, peace in the Valley may prove to be fragile

- ARUN KUMAR BANERJI

As far as the present ‘peace’ offensive in the Valley is concerned, it is quite possible that peace is gradually returning to the Valley, and there has indeed been a dip in violence. But that does not necessarily mean that Jammu and Kashmir has become peaceful.

The truth is that while militancy seems to have declined in the Valley, terrorism has increased in the Jammu region. Over the last two years, out of the seven major terror attacks, five attacks have taken place in the Jammu area ~ two in Poonch, one in Sunjawan and one each in Nagrota and Rajouri. Between May 2021 and May 2023, security forces lost about thirty soldiers in various militant strikes in the Jammu region, while casualties in the Valley have declined, compared to the period prior to 5 August 2019. (The Statesman, 12 May 2023 ).

Military and police forces have largely succeeded in curbing militant activities in the Valley; and because of this militants have shifted their focus to the Jammu region, which is to the south of Pir Panjal.

There are sleeper cells on the entire 225 km-long border of Poonch and Rajouri in Jammu and the topography of the region ~ hilly terrain and forest cover ~ makes it easier for terrorists to hide.

Another important factor is the increasing use of drones by Pakistan to supply weapons to the terrorists. In Punjab, the BSF can intercept drones from across the border; but it is not always possible in the hills of Jammu, which explains the relative ease with which terrorists can access these weapons.