A grim 2024 awaits Ukraine

Its military is exhausted by the war of attrition with Russia. Ukrainian internal unity is also fraying.

- Jonathan Eyal

As 2023 draws to a close, Ukraine has passed a historic milestone: The war-torn state has just been invited to begin negotiations for full membership in the European Union. For a country that used to be dismissed as belonging to the "Wild East" periphery of the European continent and that has been fighting for its very survival against a Russian invasion over the past two years, the idea that one day it will be admitted as an equal member in one of the world's richest and safest clubs of nations is a considerable achievement.

Sadly, however, that's the end of the good news about Ukraine. For the nation that astonished many with its bravery in standing up to one of the world's largest militaries is slowly losing its war with Russia. And although Ukraine's Western allies and backers led by the United States continue to pledge their unconditional support, the truth every Western decision-maker knows but refuses to acknowledge in public is that 2024 will be a year full of disappointments for Ukraine, virtually guaranteeing many more years of sacrifice.

Wars have a knack for generating unexpected outcomes, and Ukraine is no exception.

Russian President Vladimir Putin single-handedly decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022 because he dismissed Ukraine as "not a real country". Mr Putin genuinely believed that his so-called "special military operation" would end with Russian troops being greeted with cheers and flowers on the streets of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.