Biden's missile support for Israel may not deter Iranian retaliation

Tehran defiant despite Biden's decision to deploy US troop-operated Thaad system

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON - US President Joe Biden's decision to deploy a battery of the sophisticated Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) missile system to Israel is designed to avoid an escalation in the current dangerous showdown between the Jewish state and Iran.

In effect, the arrival of the Thaad battery aims to reassure the Israelis that the United States "has their backs" - as Mr Biden likes to put it - while warning the Iranians that if they continue firing missiles at Israel, they may end up in a confrontation with the US.

The hope in Washington is that this gesture - coupled with energetic diplomatic efforts - should be enough to limit the Israeli strike on Iran and, in turn, may even persuade the Iranians not to respond again to an incoming Israeli missile attack.

The US performed a similar feat in early April when a previous Iranian missile attack led to a single Israeli missile retaliation and no further Iranian response.

But it isn't certain that what worked for American diplomats then will work similarly now.

To start with, the Oct 1 Iranian attack on Israel was far more extensive. It was also different: While back in April the Iranians used a mixture of drones and shorter-range missiles, the latest salvo on Israel was composed entirely of longer-range ballistic missiles, more difficult to intercept and potentially far more lethal.

Back in April, the Israelis retaliated with a single missile that hit an Iranian radar near Isfahan, the site of critical Iranian nuclear facilities. The objective was to convey a blunt hint to the Iranians that even the most precious military sites cannot be protected.