How ready is Japan to deal with a Taiwan conflict?

Its defence budget is set to rise but some solutions call for more than just money

- Tosh Minohara

Japan's latest defence procurement plan is a telling snapshot of the sum of its fears about an increasingly dangerous neighbourhood.

Among other things, it is considering developing a cruise missile that would have a range of over 1,000 km - breaking a decades-old range limit imposed on its Self Defence Forces but necessary if it is to be able to effectively hit targets within North Korea or China from ships and fighter jets.

Alarm about China in particular has risen after its recent show of force in response to United States Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Five ballistic missiles fired during the massive Chinese military drills landed in waters less than 160 km from Japan.

"China continues to threaten to use force to unilaterally change the status quo and is deepening its alliance with Russia," Japan's defence ministry said last month as it laid out its budget plans. "It is also applying pressure around Taiwan with supposed military exercises and has not renounced the use of military force as a way to unite Taiwan with the rest of China." The defence ministry's 5.6 trillion yen (S$55.5 billion) budget request for the year to March 2024 amounted to a record high but news reports suggest that the final allocation could well exceed 6 trillion yen after factoring in additional requests by the ministry at year's end when Japan will unveil its new national security strategy and defence guidelines.

There is no question that any Chinese military action over Taiwan will have a direct and dire impact upon Japan. The "loss" of a democratic Taiwan would put a hostile China a mere 110 km from Japan's Yonaguni island, putting Okinawa squarely on the front lines. Occupying Taiwan would enable China to wield enormous influence over the East China Sea in addition to the South China Sea.

It would also put at risk the "first island chain of defence" which stretches from Japan through Taiwan to the west of the Philippines.