We Are Back To The Future
The Times of India|September 02, 2022
With GDP crossing pre-Covid level, economy is set to enter a good phase in medium term
Soumya Kanti Ghosh
We Are Back To The Future

The expert consensus estimate on GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2022-23 (Q1FY23) was around 15%. To that extent the 13.5% growth rate is a negative surprise. Nevertheless, at 13.5%, India’s GDP growth is 2.8 times higher than the average GDP growth for the 20 largest economies, which is 4.9%. India is still the good exception in a world already slowing down.

If we look at seasonally adjusted GDP growth, there’s a clear pick-up in economic momentum – quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1FY23 is 5.6%, the highest seasonally adjusted growth achieved in all first quarters since 2012-13.

Let’s now break down the GDP data to get a more nuanced picture.

All the good news

An interesting nugget first: Home sales in China have fallen for 11 months in a row, the longest slump since China created a private property market in late 1990s. In contrast, property sales in India are booming, registering 60% year-on-year growth in Q1FY23.

Turning to macro fundamentals:

Private consumption has improved on the back of good urban demand, which is getting support from contact-intensive services. Rural demand is likely to pick up pace.

Real private final consumption expenditure, which declined by Rs 4.77 trillion in Q1FY21 owing to the pandemic, is now 110% of the pre-Covid level.

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة September 02, 2022 من The Times of India.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة September 02, 2022 من The Times of India.

ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 9,000 مجلة وصحيفة.

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