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AS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP’S TROUBLES MOUNT, MIKE PENCE’S ASCENSION TO THE PRESIDENCY IS NO LONGER DINNER PARTY CHATTER IN WASHINGTON. IS HE UP TO THE JOB?

- Bill Powell

AS HOUSE DEMOCRATS PONDER THE politics of impeaching Donald J. Trump, they are weighing the possible outcomes. An impeachment inquiry could weaken the president before next year’s election and give the White House back to the Democrats, or it could backfire, the way the GOP’s effort to oust Bill Clinton did in 1998. But there’s a third option: impeachment could succeed. As a senior staffer on the House Judiciary Committee framed the dilemma, “What if we’re left with President Pence?”

That scenario has seemed far-fetched—until now. At the moment there doesn’t seem to be enough GOP senators who would vote to convict Trump if the Democratic-controlled House passes articles of impeachment against him. But the president hasn’t been able to quash “Ukraine-gate,” the scandal that erupted after a U.S. intelligence whistleblower reported that Trump pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Releasing the “transcript” of the call, which the White House apparently believed was exculpatory, only intensified the pressure. A recent Fox News poll showed a majority—51 percent—now want Trump impeached and removed from office. That was the first major poll showing a majority in favor of Trump’s ouster.

But it’s a separate, unrelated presidential phone call that’s making Trump more vulnerable—and a Pence presidency less unlikely.