Growth in global GDP is expected to slow in both developed and emerging market economies this year and in 2020. The reasons for this include a decline in world trade, due in large part to the trade war between the US and China. In a recent report on the global economic outlook, Rabobank economists provided insight into these and other factors.
Growth of global GDP will decline somewhat in the coming years. The slowdown will affect both developed and emerging market economies. On balance, we expect to see growth of 3,6% and 3,5% this year and next year respectively.
The risks underlying this forecast have increased rather than declined. The trade war between the US and China in particular could lead to a worse-than expected decline in global GDP growth.
Apart from this, there has been a gradual decline in the growth of world trade since the beginning of 2018. Underlying this, the largest decline in contribution to world trade growth has been in the eurozone, due mainly to lower exports to the UK and emerging Asia. A further escalation of the trade war will significantly add to the factors negatively affecting the development of the volume of global trade.
The slower growth in most of the developed economies is due to the fact that they are at the end of their economic cycle. In other words, economic growth has reached the current capacity limits. In real economic terms, this is usually associated with a tight labour market and higher pressure on real wages and inflation.
But despite the fact that growth has led to sharp declines in unemployment in most developed countries, large wage increases have mostly failed to materialise. A recent study by the International Labour Organization shows that the global annual increase in real wages in 2017 was around 1,8%. In the G20 countries, the increase was only 0,4%. This has put downward pressure on the growth contribution from household consumption in these economies.
There is a serious challenge to meet here, as many of these countries have only limited alternatives for boosting their economies if the slowing of growth turns out to be more severe than expected.
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der January 18, 2019-Ausgabe von Farmer's Weekly.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent ? Anmelden
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der January 18, 2019-Ausgabe von Farmer's Weekly.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent? Anmelden
New farmers' seedling pitfalls
Inexperienced farmers may be tempted to grow seedlings from seed themselves, but they have much to gain by trusting a seedling grower at a nursery to perform this task for them instead
South African avocado production: a success story
Avocado production in South Africa has expanded markedly since the industry's humble beginnings over 80 years ago. From a small grove planted in 1938 in what was then Nelspruit, the industry has blossomed to seven million trees planted on 20 000ha. Dr Guy Witney, project manager at Great Brak Avos, spoke to Annelie Coleman about the country's avocado production.
Unlocking value through livestock exports
Exporting livestock might sound like a daunting business that's better left for big companies, but Gerrie Ferreira, who farms near Oudtshoorn in the Western Cape, has been doing it successfully for almost 30 years, sometimes in partnership with other breeders. He spoke to Glenneis Kriel about the huge potential this market holds, and offers some advice for farmers who are contemplating going this route.
An agribusiness's dedication to community upliftment
For agribusiness NWK, located in Lichtenburg, North West, corporate social investment is an important part of creating a positive influence alongside financial returns. Johan Bezuidenhout, NWK’s group manager of corporate marketing and communication, spoke to Annelie Coleman about why the company chooses to invest millions of rands in the area it operates in every year.
Empowering dreams, transforming lives
Since its launch in 2013, the Agri's Got Talent competition has revolutionised the lives of many farmworkers by unlocking their hidden talents and fostering a culture of empowerment. Glenneis Kriel spoke to various finalists about how the contest has changed their lives.
Foreign investment: agriculture maintains its appeal
South Africa remains a popular destination for foreign investors, despite an often negative outlook from its citizens. It is a gateway to Africa, and with its counterseasonal production to the Northern Hemisphere and favourable weather, local agriculture is especially well placed to attract foreign interest, bringing with it hope for rural communities
The real value and message of COP29 for SA agriculture
While the 2024 Conference of the Parties may have disappointed those who hoped for real progress, it's more important for South African agriculture to highlight its role in carbon mitigation
Improving efficiencies in feed and grain milling
Bühler, a Swiss-based company that provides solutions and equipment for various industries, including food and animal feed processing, has pledged that by 2025, it will deliver scalable solutions that will reduce energy, waste and water by 50% in the value chains of its customers.
Tips for better olive production
At an SA Olive Association field day in November, industry experts shared ways to improve olive production efficiencies, from soil preparation to harvesting.
More effort needed to protect vulnerable cheetah
On International Cheetah Day, commemorated every year on 4 December, emphasis was placed on the vulnerability of the species.
