Turkish Onslaught In Syria Gives Putin New Victory Headache

The latest turn in Syria’s civil war threatens to derail Putin’s master plan

- Henry Meyer

It’s only been a month since Russian President Vladimir Putin made a flying visit to Syria to declare victory in the civil war he helped turn around. Winning the peace -- or even preserving it -- already looks like a huge challenge.

Like almost everything that happens in Syria now, Turkey’s unfolding attack on Kurdish militias just south of its border is Putin’s problem. Russia’s army helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wrest back control of much of his country. Phase two of the plan was to shift the contest from military to diplomatic ground, and legitimise Assad’s rule. Those efforts are in trouble.

Western-backed opposition groups are hostile to peace talks hosted by Russia. So Putin’s Syrian congress in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, which was due to take place as Bloomberg Businessweek Middle East went to press and was trumpeted as the moment when the country’s main factions would take a stride toward settling its future, looked set to turn into an assembly of Assad allies talking among themselves.

Inside Syria, Russian soldiers have faced risks all along -- but in January brought a new one when a swarm of satellite-guided drones attacked its air and naval bases. The raid was foiled and its perpetrators remain a mystery. Russia pointed the finger at the U.S., which denied involvement.

Most urgent is Turkey’s intervention on Jan. 20 against the Kurdish-held town of Afrin in northwest Syria, which threatens to open a new front in a conflict Russia is trying to end. It was a diplomatic coup for Putin last year when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed up to his plan to stabilise Syria. Russia sees the Syrian Kurds, who control large territories near the Turkish border, as a potential ally and key part of any settlement. Erdogan sees them as a terrorist menace -- one he’s vowed to destroy.