Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte, Touche Tohmatsu, talks to Prosenjit Datta, Rajeev Dubey and Joe C. Mathew on how India can do well in spite of trade wars, oil, the state of the global economy and the future of global trade.
How do you see the trade war playing out?
A: Dr. Ira Kalish: There is a high degree of uncertainty about it. It’s not clear how far we’ll go and what the specific causes will be. There’s evidence that businesses in the US and Europe are putting investments, particularly in the global supply chain, on hold. What we know is that we’ve already had tariffs imposed and there is threat of substantial tariffs as retaliation. On top of that, there is a threat that the US might withdraw from NAFTA and the WTO. The US has done things that undermine the WTO. The dispute resolution mechanism, which adjudicates disputes between countries, is supposed to have seven members. There are only four now. By the end of the year, only one might be left. That would undercut the ability of the global trading system to function. The worst case scenario is very high tariffs and disintegrating global institutions. But it may not come to that.
How will it affect India and China?
A trade war will hurt China and I think in anticipation of that the Chinese central bank has eased monetary policy. A significant trade war will spill over into countries highly integrated into China’s supply chain such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan and some South East Asian countries. It will have less direct impact on India due to the small share of trade in economic activity. On the other hand, India is highly integrated into global services supply chains, and it doesn’t appear that trade wars for now will directly affect services. The least it means is that there’s unlikely to be much progress on globalisation of services trade, something that was on the table a few years ago. That would be a lost opportunity for India. I don’t see a huge negative impact directly, maybe only indirectly, if the global economy slows down as a consequence of a trade war.
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der September 23, 2018-Ausgabe von Business Today.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent ? Anmelden
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der September 23, 2018-Ausgabe von Business Today.
Starten Sie Ihre 7-tägige kostenlose Testversion von Magzter GOLD, um auf Tausende kuratierte Premium-Storys sowie über 8.000 Zeitschriften und Zeitungen zuzugreifen.
Bereits Abonnent? Anmelden
"Focus on the challenge of each customer"
SHASHANK KUMAR MD & CO-FOUNDER I RAZORPAY Razorpay is India's first full-stack financial solutions company
PEDAL ON THE FUTURE
THE MG WINDSOR EV, WITH ITS FUTURISTIC AND MINIMALIST DESIGN, COMBINES THE BEST OF BOTH WORLDS-COMFORT AND TECHNOLOGY
BREATHE EASY
Whether you're battling allergies, looking to remove pollutants, or simply want to breathe easier, the right air purifier can make a difference
The Taste of India in a Glass
FROM ROYAL LIQUEURS TO DISTILLED MAHUA, INDIAN HERITAGE ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ARE HAVING THEIR DAY IN THE SUN
LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP
IN 2025, INVESTORS WILL NEED TO FACTOR IN VOLATILITY ACROSS ASSET CLASSES
MISSING ADVISORS
INDIA HAS JUST ONE INVESTMENT ADVISOR FOR NEARLY EVERY 200,000 INVESTORS. AT A TIME WHEN RETAIL PARTICIPATION IN THE STOCK MARKETS IS BOOMING, THIS ASSUMES SIGNIFICANCE
TURNING A CORNER
SHARED ELECTRIC MOBILITY START-UP YULU'S SHIFT TO SERVICING THE QUICK COMMERCE SECTOR IS HELPING IT GROW FAST. IT IS NOW FOCUSSING ON IMPROVING ROAD SAFETY FEATURES AS IT TURNS EBITDA POSITIVE
REALITY CHECK
INDIAN STOCK MARKETS PLUNGED BEGINNING OCTOBER FOR A HOST OF REASONS, INCLUDING A FALL IN FII OWNERSHIP. HOW DEEP WILL THE CORRECTION BE?
TRUMP'S TRADE TANGO
The return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the US has put the global economy on edge. India, too, is unlikely to remain unaffected. How will policymakers meet this latest challenge?
"The essence of the Trump administration will be transactional”
Global investor, analyst, and best-selling author Ruchir Sharma decodes why Donald Trump won the elections, what India should do, the risks, and more