Replacing coal with RE promises EU energy independence: Report

A recent modeling by the clean energy technology provider Wartsila has revealed that major system-wide benefits are in reach for European power producers that rapidly replace coal with renewable generation and flexibility - from avoiding fuel and carbon costs to new clean power export opportunities.

“Our analysis from both sides of the coal exit spectrum is clear: value has been eroded from coal by low-cost renewable base load. The coal phase-out presents myriad opportunities for European countries to cut production costs, achieve energy independence and create revenue through society-wide sector coupling. Flexibility is key to levelling up variable renewables to fulfill a base load role to realise these benefits,” said Jan Andersson, Market Development Manager for Europe, Wartsila Energy.

Energy system modeling for Germany and Ukraine - two key European countries with vastly different power systems and policies to phase-out coal - shows that the coal capacity gap can be met cost optimally with renewable electricity coupled with flexible resources, i.e. flexible thermal power plants and energy storage.

Germany

Wartsila modelled a ‘Fast Phase-out 2030 scenario in which Germany eliminate coal-fired power by 2030, eight years ahead of target, highlighting that the value of coal-fired power would be eroded by building 13 GW of new renewable capacity annually.

Additional renewable base load makes Germany less dependent on imports from neighbouring countries during the coal-phase out years, shifting from a net importer to net exporter in the 2030s.

Germany could save up to 600 million tons of CO2 by 2045, equivalent to 81 percent of its national carbon footprint today compared to phasing out coal by 2038, the report said.

To meet heating demand as coal is phased-out, plus to balance the influx of new renewables, up to 12 GW of flexible gas-powered Combined Heat & Power (CHP) is required.