Trade War Heavy On Cargo

Air cargo is now in its longest slump in demand since the global financial crisis in 2008. According to latest figures by IATA, the demand in global air freight market has contracted by 3.9 percent.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that demand, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs), contracted by 3.9 percent in August 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. This marks the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in freight volumes, the longest period since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), rose by two per cent year-on-year in August 2019. Capacity growth has now outstripped demand growth for the 16th consecutive month.

Air cargo continues to face strong headwinds from the intensifying trade war between the US and China, as well as weakness in some of the key economic indicators and rising political uncertainties worldwide. Global trade volumes are one percent lower than a year ago.

Trade-in emerging countries has been underperforming that of advanced nations throughout most of 2019. This is due to higher sensitivity of the emerging economies to trade tensions, rising political instability and sharp currency depreciation in some of the key emerging markets.

Global export orders continue to fall. The global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remains in contraction territory. Its tracking of new manufacturing export orders has pointed to falling orders since September 2018. And for the second month in a row, all major trading nations reported falling orders.