Beyond Boom-Bust Cycles

We need a body to provide advisories on crops to farmers, based on likely demand and supply conditions, and econometric models.

- Vivan Fernandes

THERE IS SUPPOSED to be an inverse relationship between risk and reward. But that does not seem to be true of Indian agriculture. Farmers are at risk when the weather is good and also when it sours. Bad weather means poor harvests and lower incomes. Price slumps result in a similar outcome when the weather is blessed.

In the three years that this correspondent has covered agriculture with some diligence, he has seen potato prices dive from Rs 8 a kg to Rs 2 in 2015, followed by shooting prices the next year and a bust early this year. The wheat crop, about to be harvested, was laid low by freak hailstorms in 2015 in western Uttar Pradesh, resulting in widespread losses. The government diluted the quality norms for procurement, but the notification came after farmers had sold in distress, so traders benefitted.

Later that year, Punjab’s cotton farmers were devastated by an infestation of white flies and ineffective pesticides supplied by the government. In Bundelkhand, dry spells during four consecutive crop seasons forced small farmers into wage labour in cities. Around this time last year, Marathwada was in the throes of a drought and drinking water was supplied to Latur by train.

Copious rains during the monsoon season last year brought cheer to rural households. Precipitation across the country was just 3 per cent less than the long-term average. Abundant harvests followed, both during the summer and winter crop seasons, giving Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh reason to brag about his initiatives at a press conference on 22 May.