Strange, Surreal and Surprising

The writer’s first story for India Legal was four years ago explaining that Donald Trump’s election as US president could be the start of the Second American Revolution. The big question, regardless of the eventual outcome is did it stick ideologically, and what are the consequences?

- Kenneth Tiven

THE closeness of this election in 2020 means that the outcome is mired in recounts and court battles that could go on right up to Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021. It appears at the time of writing that Democrat Joe Biden is likely to be the choice to take the oath of office. As a journalist, I have been involved in the coverage of 14 US presidential campaigns and elections. Without doubt this is the strangest, from start to finish, of any of them.

Initial analysis of the voting suggests that the older, whiter, more rural Americans accepted Trump’s behaviour and performance as a return to attitudes that elected President Ronald Reagan in 1980. Without Trump as leader, the movement is likely to simmer rather than boil. Increasing numbers of new voters will dilute the impact at election time, especially as America becomes more demographically diverse.

The idea of bringing the nation back together is complex. First, one must recognise that it was never together. In the depths of the Great Depression the Republican president running for reelection against Franklin Roosevelt still managed to get nearly 40 percent of the votes. Winning the Second World War bolstered the American notion of one nation but a decade later much of that sensation had dissipated although the Republicans added “under God” to the pledge of allegiance.

Two political parties seriously contest American elections, as minor parties here are of insignificant impact. How - ever, the electorate is really four distinct groups—Republicans and Democrats each are, let us say, 25 percent of the total voting pool. Another 20 percent are unaffiliated, meaning they are undecided, or low information, voters. The remaining 30 percent do not vote for a multitude of reasons.