Swimming Against The Tide

Oommen Chandy is battling both anti-incumbency and history in a state in which governments have changed with cyclical regularity. The left front has the advantage but with the BJP forming the third front, it may play spoilsport.

Since 1980, Kerala has maintained a political equilibrium of sorts, in turns electing the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to power. The key factor here is, of course, antiincumbency, the presiding theory being that any ruling front needs time in the wilderness to atone for possible misdeeds. Renowned architect Professor Eugene Pandala feels it’s Kerala’s boon that “no party has taken it as a captive domain so far. We keep our options open, swing from Right to Left but the people reserve their right to vote according to their choice”.

Now the professor’s observations are rooted in Kerala’s traditional election scenario where for ages two formidable political fronts duelled it out in every poll. The 2016 assembly polls, though, present a totally different political dynamic. They mark the entry of a possible third front, the BJP-Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) combination, which may tilt the traditional political balance. The BJP has roped in the BDJS, the newfangled political outfit of the Hindu Ezhava community (who form 23 per cent of Kerala’s 33.3 million population) with a dream of not just opening its account in the Kerala assembly but doing so in double digits.

What lends heft to the idea is that the BJP—which has a traditional voteshare of 6 per cent—polled 15.3 per cent in the 2015 local body elections. “We are eyeing 24 per cent of the vote,” says a BJP state leader with confidence. His projections look good on paper, but caste dynamics in Kerala don’t always spin on party diktats here.