Are We Ready?

The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. How exactly should it gear up for cataclysms? How much should disaster preparedness be the work of government—and of civilians? Sam Ramos-Jones, whose work immerses him in risk analysis and crisis management for businesses in the Asia-Pacific region, sizes up predictions and gives it to us straight

As an archipelago of over 7,641 islands at the junction of several tectonic plate boundaries, the Philip-pines is especially susceptible to natural disasters. It ranked 3rd in the 2018 World Risk Index of most disaster-prone countries, while the World Bank estimates that we lose US$3.5 billion in assets each year due to typhoons and earthquakes. Ominously, the 2019 Global Peace Index ranked the Philippines as having the world’s highest vulnerability to natural hazards brought about by the effects of climate change.

The events of 2020 have put some of those vulnerabilities into sharp relief—with Taal Volcano (Batangas province) violently stirring to activity on 12 January, and the international public health emergency that is COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus), which is still unfolding.

Taal’s eruption resulted in days of travel disruptions and the loss of swathes of agricultural crops. It has momentarily dampened livelihoods around Taal Lake that depend on tourism. Overall, however, the effects have not been catastrophic—certainly far less disruptive than Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption.

Coronavirus has proven much more consequential and its demand-side effects on travel and tourism are already being felt. This crisis is certain to get worse before it gets better. It has become increasingly obvious that containment will not succeed, raising a global pandemic. But eventually, this too shall pass. The pathogen’s mortality rate is lower than both SARS and MERS and vaccines are already in the pipeline for human trials.

Taal and COVID-19 both underscore important lessons on preparing for worse events in the future.