A Clash Of Coalitions

Arithmetic may trump personality in 2019 as the battle has turned from Modi versus the Rest to UPA+ versus NDA+

- Ajit Kumar Jha

Can A Congress-led Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) challenge the Narendra Modi juggernaut in 2019? Will the ‘index of opposition unity’ being forged across the country— displayed in Karnataka, where Sonia Gandhi ensured the Congress took the backseat to seal a post-poll pact with the Janata Dal (Secular) to turn the tables on the BJP-led NDA, and in Uttar Pradesh, where the opposition stunned the BJP in three bellwether bypolls—checkmate the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls?

The two questions are related yet distinct. The first question pitches the 2019 general elections as purely a Modi versus Rest contest; the second sees it as the clash of two grand coalitions—UPA+ versus NDA+. While an answer to the first would hinge on the personality of the prime minister defining the contours of the battle, the second would directly depend upon the arithmetic of alliances. While the first scenario mirrors the Modi versus Rahul contest of 2014, the second parallels two key battles of the past between big coalitions: 1999, when the A.B. Vajpayee-led NDA won, and in 2004, when the Sonia Gandhi-led UPA emerged victorious.

Sensing Modi would stand much taller than Rahul or any other UPA leader if 2019 were to end up as a personality-led, presidential-style election, like in 2014, the UPA+ alliance has deliberately changed the narrative of the debate, stating upfront that its prime ministerial candidate will be finalised only after the Lok Sabha polls are over. Fighting the battle without declaring the general also helps prevent a clash of egos between at least half a dozen leaders, such as Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Chandrababu Naidu, Sharad Pawar and Akhilesh Yadav—all prime ministerial aspirants.