Can India And Pakistan Pull Back From The Brink?

India and Pakistan are locked in a dangerous face-off that could escalate into a full-blown war. How can they step back from the brink?

- Raj Chengappa

War is the unfolding of miscalculations, Barbara W. Tuchman, a contemporary military historian, observed. If India and Pakistan find themselves on the brink of a major confrontation, you could add misadventures, misgivings and misunderstandings to the list. The leaders of the two countries tend to look at managing relations between them as akin to playing poker—apart from strategy and skill, they employ brinkmanship to win rounds.

Till Pulwama, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and the deep state that controls him believed they held all the highvalue cards to challenge India. They had the Terror card, which they regularly used to bloody effect. The Kashmir card to create disaffection in the Valley. The Muslim card which they flaunted to keep the West at bay. The Nuclear card to prevent India from striking them hard whenever they made us bleed. The Afghan card to buy America’s compliance. And the China card which they frequently used to trump Trump.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in May 2014, India has worked steadily to neutralise these cards and nullify the advantage Pakistan believed it had. Modi built strong friendships with Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Central Asian states to defuse its Muslim card. To Pakistan’s dismay, for the first time in decades, India was even invited to attend the meeting of foreign ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) as a guest of honour. India invested heavily in Afghanistan to ensure it became a player in Pakistan’s backyard, much to its chagrin. India also strengthened its strategic partnership with the United States and kept China engaged with a mix of friendship and firmness.

‘DON’T MESS WITH ME’