The 300 Million Distress Vote

Large parts of the Indian economy—rural and urban—are in distress. Will the anger of the Indian precariat singe the ruling BJP in this election or will the party find enough takers for its poll plank of national security and nationalism?

- Shwweta Punj And M.G. Arun

The Indian economy is in the grip of a slowdown. Economic distress runs deep and is alarmingly widespread. Businesses have failed across sectors, from aviation to telecom. Investments are drying up, having fallen to a 14-year low in the October-December quarter of FY19, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The shadow banking sector, which has easier lending norms and funds a lot of big and small businesses, is in turmoil, such as the collapse of the IL&FS group that financed big infrastructure businesses. Small businesses are still reeling under the compliance burden of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). This widespread economic gloom has become a reccuring leitmotif in the election campaign of the Congress, amid competing narratives of national security and nationalism that the BJP would now have the voter focus on. Of the total 900 million people eligible to vote, around 300 million are distressed voters—a segment that is economically vulnerable, has no job security and is typically the first to feel the brunt of big economic disruptions. The spectre of demonetisation leaps readily to mind. The 300 million figure is a conservative estimate by India today of the number of voters directly and indirectly employed in the distress sectors—220 million in agriculture, 45 million in textiles and 52 million in real estate and construction. Another 4 million each are employed in the telecom and leather sectors, 4.6 million in gems and jewellery, 2 million in rubber and a million in the plastics industry. Will these voters hold the Modi government accountable for the distress that has gripped the economy or will their focus waver from their precarious livelihoods to the BJP’s new poll rhetoric of national security and nationalism?

SIGNS OF AGONY