War Is Back

Donald Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric could force Europe to set up its own military-industrial complex

- ANITA PRATAP

THE RUSSIAN WIDOW stood at the podium-bold, beautiful and brave in bereavement. Her husband, 47-year-old Alexei Navalny, a relentless opponent of President Vladimir Putin, lay dead in a freezing Siberian gulag.

Instead of comforting her traumatised children in Moscow, she chose to speak to western leaders and generals attending the Munich Security Conference, the "Davos of Defence". They gave a standing ovation before and after her impactful speech. Trembling with grief and fury, she said "I want Putin, his entourage, to know they will pay for what they have done. That day will come very soon."

The curse of widows and orphans come true, so it is said. But geopolitics is such that Yulia's wishes, however fervent, are unlikely to materialise anytime soon. Western leaders quickly blamed Putin for Navalny's untimely death many of Putin's other opponents met untimely deaths, poisoned or "falling off" buildings. But piling more punishment on Putin is arguably pointless. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the west had imposed sanctions-spanning 18,000 measures-frozen assets worth $300 billion and amputated Russia from the global financial system. The west's tool box of sanctions is emptying, but Russia's war machine grinds on.

Oil at $80 a barrel fuels Putin's war in Ukraine. This protracted war favours Russia, which has commandeered its heavy industry into domestic weapons production. Russia enjoys economic independence and manpower, the shortage of which is Ukraine's big challenge. With over six million Ukrainians fleeing the country and nearly four million internal refugees, 25 per cent of Ukraine's population is displaced. Russian occupation hampers Ukraine's grain and steel exports. It also delays, if not aborts, Ukraine's accession into NATO and the European Union.