In the fast lane

Markets are on a dream run. But for how long will it last?

- NACHIKET KELKAR

WHEN THE COVID-19 pandemic started spreading rapidly across the world in February 2020, capital markets were among the biggest casualties. Fearing the worst, investors dumped stocks and rushed to safer assets. The NSE Nifty 50 index, which had hit a life high of 12,430.50 on January 20, 2020, crashed 40 per cent, to 7,511.10 on March 24, 2020.

However, it bounced back in no time, and there has been a relentless rally since, backed by the fiscal stimulus measures unleashed by the central banks and governments. With interest rates crashing to near zero in many developed markets, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) channelled huge amounts into emerging markets, driving them to dizzying heights.

On January 21, 2021, the Nifty 50 touched 14,753.55 in intra-day trading, which is more than 96 per cent jump in ten months. The BSE Sensex surged from 25,638.9 on March 24, 2020, to 50,184.01 on January 21, 2021. The 96 per cent rally has been driven by a flood of FII money, a faster-than-anticipated recovery in the economy and the better-than-expected corporate earnings growth.

“In March 2020, when the markets fell sharply, investors were factoring in the worst case scenario. From there on, as the lockdown was lifted, it was evident that the economy was slowly and steadily limping back to normalcy, and the markets started factoring in some degree of normalised economic growth,” said Shibani Sircar Kurian, head of equity research at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company.